By Mike Bierne
Brandweek
July 2, 2008
For those who think media fragmentation and niche marketing have redefined marketing permanently, here's something to chew on.
What if the microscopically splintered youth demo out there right now—recent college grads on down to kids riding the bus to preschool—ends up gelling, melting and solidifying into a uniform power bloc of consumers? And what if, contrary to popular wisdom, they're not self-important, undisciplined individualists riding on digital highs, but a team-playing, risk-averse group that fosters familial bonding? All this would mean that Gen Y actually looks a lot more like, well, AARP. It would mean that the billions of dollars' worth of microtargeted marketing being created right now just could be a . . . waste of time? Then what?
This future vision is, granted, a bit dramatized. But it's the kind that's currently being prophesied—along with many other visions and, notably, corrections to current marketing dogma—by economist, historian, demographer and author Neil Howe.
These days, anybody who was born after 1981 or so gets the benefit, among other things, of a well-worn marketing tag: Gen Y, the Net Generation, the iGeneration, the 9/11 Generation, etc. Howe prefers to call them "millennials." No generation, he argues, is a continuation of the previous one, so Gen Y is an inherent misnomer. The names connote that youth today are Gen X on steroids. They're not. And if you listen to Howe for more than a few minutes, he'll tell you many other things that young consumers are not, often things that brands have been led to believe that they are.
Now is a prophetic time to spend a few minutes with Howe. He has long argued that history is cyclical and, further, that society goes through "turnings," or tectonic shifts in the prevailing cultural mood.If Howe's correct about the cyclical pattern, the fourth turning was due to hit around 2005, and its trigger would be a global terrorism event or an implosion in financial markets that exposes the thinness of private savings and the devaluation of assets. Sound familiar?
What's important for this discussion, however, isn't so much Howe's theories about social crisis—it's not hard to find doomsday prophets these days, nor has it ever been—but how those theories address economic behavior. Howe argues that the generation that comes of age during a crisis—in other words, youthful consumers who are maturing as you read this—is the one that corrects the excesses of those in power and reorders the societal framework.
While it's too early to say whether the War on Terror will be for millennials what World War II was for the G.I. Generation, Howe points out that there's already plenty of evidence that, when it comes to how they consume, millennials resemble seniors far more than Gen Xers.
Howe and longtime co-author William Strauss (who died last December) have published four books about millennials, including Millennials in the Workplace, set for release this fall. From his office in Great Falls, Va., Howe recently spoke at length with Brandweek about what marketers should know about this coveted, and misunderstood, generation of consumers.
Brandweek: Define "millennials" for the marketers who'll be reading this.
Howe: We define millennials as Americans born since the early 1980s. Since we may now be in another generation, we'll say 1982 until sometime recently. We have to wait for some more history to pass before we can define their youngest birth-year boundary. We define a generation as a group of people with certain attitudes and behaviors in common that are different from the generation before it.
BW: Much of what's been said and written about millennials—including, at times, in the pages of our magazine—is negative. They're conceited; they have no loyalty, etc. Why do you think this generation gets such a bad rap?
NH: Every generation has a tendency to focus on what is disappointing about young kids. It's a little bit of the self-congratulatory nature of older generations and an unwillingness to change and adapt to a new set of kids who are behaving differently. It's amazing to me to see Xers in the workplace look disparagingly at entry-level millennials. It goes to show it's tough for any new generation.There also are other things going on. First with the media: If it bleeds, it leads; so people don't focus on the good news. Second, our tolerance for bad behavior is declining faster than the bad behavior itself.
BW: In her book Generation Me, psychologist Jean Twenge contended that college students today were more narcissistic than both boomers and Gen Xers were when they were in school. How does that square with your argument that millennials have more in common with their grandparents' affinity for team building and community?
NH: When you look at a generation, you look at a broad range of indicators: behavior, culture, opinion surveys, how they interact with other generations, what they think of institutions, how they behave within those institutions. So you can't just look at one survey instrument.Also, when you're talking about selfishness or self-oriented behavior, what usually comes to mind from the word "narcissism" is this dysfunctional, self-oriented behavior. But look at this generation. They're making longer-term plans than Xers. This does not indicate the impulsive nature that we associate with self-oriented behavior. You find their risk-taking is down, which is consistent with long-range planning and a desire to not disappoint their parents or their friends. We find a huge increase in team teaching, team grading, community service, service learning—a whole range of activities in which they are acting in team-like ways.And look at how millennials are changing information technology. Boomers individuated by creating the personal computer. Then Gen X was creative on the Internet by going wherever they wanted under any avatar they wanted without being tracked. Where are millennials taking information technology? Instant messaging, chat rooms, texting and, above all, social networking. It's a return to community, but in virtual space. It's surprising how they are recreating community within the context of a new technology.
BW: When marketers try to figure out how to monetize social networks, it's a case of an older generation attempting to understand the mores of a younger one. It's like Hollywood creating movies and TV shows for young kids, though what they're really making is entertainment for what they think kids should be like. Does this have any resonance with your findings?
NH: We came out with a book called Millennials in the Pop Culture and we've consulted with the largest media companies: Viacom, Time Warner and so forth. One problem we identified is the typical culture creator. He contributes to the mismatch [between product and consumer] and is one reason why the pop-culture business often goes through cycles where young people don't buy stuff. People creating pop culture are in their early 30s. That's Gen X. In phase-of-life terms, these people are least likely to have daily contact with teenagers. They're too old to have them as siblings. They're too young to have them as children. Boomers in their 50s have more daily contact with 20-year-olds than Xers do.
BW: Marketers are grappling with media fragmentation and the demand for customizable products, both of which suggest that, right now, individualism is king. Yet you and Strauss have written that, when the next societal crisis arises, it'll most likely be the millennials who respond with personal sacrifice and by building public consensus. What do marketers need to understand better when it comes to the socializing traits and grouping habits of the millennial generation?
NH: It's easy for millennials to express themselves today, but it's done within the context of a generation that enjoys being with each other and enjoys customization as a novel way of forming friendships and forming groups. The social-networking phenomenon is taking place within the context of this incredibly vast and intense and unremitting social immersion experience. This is the most connected generation in world history.The overwhelming, dominant purpose of social network sites is to further intensify the close social networks millennials have with their own lives in school, work or wherever they are. It's important to keep that in mind, because when Xers think about the amount of time millennials spend online, they think of it in Xer ways—how they're doing strange new things and going outside the box. That clearly is not what millennials are doing. Even what they're doing with music is in a social context; they're customizing music to share with others.
BW: Negative stereotypes notwithstanding, we've all heard much about how environmental responsibility, ethics and social consciousness are resonating with young consumers. But are these messages going to strike a chord with millennials as they incur huge college debts and inherit a greater tax burden from previous generations?
NH: Those messages already have struck a chord. Community service has almost become a norm at colleges and high schools. When Gen Xers were that age, it was a form of punishment.We also see an enormous increase in voter participation. The all-time low in the 18-29-year-old vote rate in a presidential election was 1996. Only 35% voted, and that was the last year that that age bracket was entirely filled by Generation X. In 2000, it went up to 42%. In 2004, it went up to 52%. We think in 2008 it could be over 60%. We even think that you will see people in their mid 20s voting as much or more than people in their mid 30s.One other indicator is millennials want to work for companies that do something for the community. The idea of teamwork is not just [to be] with your friends; it's the whole community. That's why you engage in community service; that is why you vote and that's why you want the company you work for to serve the larger community.
BW: If millennials have a propensity to be more community-minded and involved in social causes, does that also mean they'll defer starting careers and families? If so, their peak earning years would start much later in life.
NH: I don't see that. Millennials don't want to keep life on hold while they pursue community work. They want to take part in community-spirited communities while they are pursuing other activities in their lives. They want balanced lives.
BW: Would it behoove a brand to somehow get this sense of community building into their marketing message, then?
NH: Absolutely, along with a positive, upbeat message. Look at the Obama phenomenon on college campuses. He's an interesting millennial indicator. He makes a big deal about being positive, bridging gaps and transcending baby boomer politics. Baby boomers are the parents of many of those college students, and I'm sure Hillary [Clinton] reminds them about what they don't like about politics.The other thing to remember is that millennials think they're special, which is why they accept being sheltered by laws that make Xers uncomfortable [for example, government wiretapping without a court-issued warrant]. An Xer might say: The government thinks I'm vulnerable and can't take care of myself. A millennial would say: I'm special, and government wants to protect me. These themes ought to be part of what marketers are doing.
BW: If we take all these themes in the aggregate, do they suggest anything about millennials'behavior as consumers?
NH: I think that millennials are capable of regenerating the whole notion of the big brand. The idea of the big brand went into decline with the Gen Xers and certainly during the late boomer period. Gen X was a generation that didn't even want to be thought of as a generation, and it had a lot of little niches. There was never a Top 40 group of songs everyone listened to, and the generation is spread out in terms of wealth. They were cynical toward anything that was big, and this gave rise to niche and viral marketing. The whole concept of the Long Tail is perfectly designed for Gen X.With millennials you're returning to the fatter portion of the bell curve. This is a generation that wants to feel that they do have a center of gravity. So you'll see the emergence of huge brands with this generation. Look at [what happened with] Harry Potter. Think of the idea of the big brand as being a dimension of the return to community. On these points of always being positive and believing in big brands, what generation does that remind us of?
BW: The GIs?
NH: Absolutely. They had strong brand loyalty and an almost pathological positivism. "Somewhere Over the Rainbow;" John Kennedy's "let's get this country moving again" and Ronald Reagan's [now-famous 1984 reelection-campaign TV ad] "Morning in America." Those ideas drove boomers crazy. The one thing they remember about GIs is they were always positive, and it's interesting how we see certain elements of this same temperament in the junior sentiment coming today.
BW: Which brands do you see as poised to take advantage of this return to community?
NH: I don't like to talk about specific brands. I can talk about the attributes they should have. They should have a dimension that everyone identifies as a product or service that helps us as a national community in ways beyond what it provides the private buyer. Look at the wiki economy: people are getting together to provide value without payment. They are providing information to assist each other.The kind of brand that will be associated with a positive outlook and role that youth can play in the community will be popular. When you ask millennials what their favorite activity should be, it's helping other kids. That's logical. If kids are so special, then helping the community [becomes a matter of] helping other kids.Millennial brands also will portray kids who are smart and achieving. The whole idea of smartness is coming back. With Xers, that was not true, [especially] when you recall movies like Wayne's World and Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure. Now, that image has shifted up through people in their 30s with advertisements. Gen X playfully toyed with being dumb. Look at the "for Dummies" books and the Idiot's Guide titles. Millennials won't play with being dumb; they like calling each other smart.Disney is hugely successful with its TV shows and movies in attracting millennials. "High School Musical" was the top selling music CD during 2006. It's a musical where teens are talking about team work and positiveness and being special. A lot of Xers see that movie, and they just can't believe it. You see the same themes in the world of Harry Potter.
BW: Does what you're saying suggest that cause-based marketing should also be a bigger part of the picture for brands?
NH: Yes, but here's the difference. For boomers, cause marketing means being symbolically aligned with an issue. Boomers have always been focused on raising awareness and getting people to reprioritize their objectives in life. We see so many of these boomer commercials. Even oil companies want to save the world and make us think philosophically. That's not the kind of cause marketing that resonates with millennials. They want actual programs that make real changes in people's daily lives. Boomers do stuff that reorients the way people think and deal with the symbolism of issues. They'll talk about being one world and think more about poor people. Millennials are much more motivated by a plan to mobilize people on the Web to buy mosquito nets and get them into the hands where they can actually save lives.
BW: Lots of marketers are trying to figure out how to monetize the Web. Won't that idea repulse your average millennial?
NH: The Xers respect that, but they also expect an ad to be on the seatback tray in a plane. The Xer is always in the marketplace. Millennials don't think of themselves that way. We've seen that in their attitude toward work. They want longer-term jobs with larger institutions or institutions that can take care of them for the long term
BW: Speaking of work, where do you come down on the issue of millennials' supposed lack of loyalty to companies?
NH: One misnomer people have about millennials is they like to change jobs all the time. What they really want is a perfect job where they can do a lot of different things but can stay with an employer who can give them everything they need and provide continuity and security for the long term. They change jobs because they find the employer is not offering that, so they leave. So, even more employers offer short-term benefits. It's a vicious cycle.
BW: If teamwork and community are the millennials' strengths, what are their weaknesses? Anything that brand managers should be wary of?
NH: Weaknesses in the millennial generation will become more apparent as they become older and take over the institutions of this country. One of the traits that faculty at college campuses is talking about is risk-aversion. If you're a journalist and you're interviewing millennials, one of the things they'll do is go to their friends or IM their friends to find out what they think. It's almost as if millennials want to answer as a group, and not as individuals.It's also very hard for them to enter into an adversarial relationship as peers. For instance, it's very hard to get freshman in a college class to debate each other. It was easy for boomers to do that. We could debate each other at the drop of a hat. But millennials' team ethic, which has huge positives, could be a problem for them down the road.
