By Gerald F. Seib
The Wall Street Journal
September 3, 2008
Republican reformers have been crying out for the party to do more for the ranks of "Sam's Club Republicans" -- that is, working-class GOP voters more comfortable in a big-box store than a country club.
With Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as John McCain's running mate, the party now has a new national leader whose personal story resonates precisely with those Sam's Club Republicans.
The question for the reform movement now is whether Gov. Palin and the party can develop an economic message with equal appeal to the party's blue-collar contingent, which has been responsible for much of the party's growth in the last two decades. And on that front, reformers think the party has some work to do.
"On paper, and I'm sure this is partly why the McCain people picked her, she is the prototypical figure for working-class Republicans," says Ross Douthat, author of a new book entitled, "Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream."
But, he says, she is "unformed" on economic policy, adding: "I don't think they've really hit on a middle-class-friendly economic agenda."
Regardless of how it plays out, the Palin pick was designed in part to reinforce the image of Republican presidential nominee John McCain as a maverick agent of change who is willing to shake up the party. And it was designed in part to put forth a vice presidential nominee whose profile -- mother, hunting enthusiast with a blue-collar husband -- would appeal to blue-collar Republicans, moderate Democrats and independents the party badly needs to woo this year.
Those happen to be the same goals of reformers within the party who have been clamoring for an updated message. They argue that the party has benefited enormously in the last generation by luring in millions of middle-class and blue-collar Americans who embraced the party's culturally conservative message.
But, the reformers argue, the party's economic message hasn't been adjusted to appeal to these nontraditional Republicans. Now, they say, the party has to speak more directly to them, particularly as Democratic nominee Barack Obama hones a campaign message -- built around a middle-class tax cut -- that is designed to address deep-seated middle-class economic anxieties.
"You can win them over, most of them, on social issues," says Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who coined the term "Sam's Club Republicans" several years ago. "But there's a perception that Republicans are rich, stereotypical people who don't care about modest-income folks. It's not true, but I don't think we've done a very good job of translating our ideals and principles into proposals they can understand."
To some extent, Republicans may be the victims of their own policy successes in the last generation -- successes that reformers fear have made the party complacent and entrenched in old policy appeals.
Starting with Ronald Reagan's election as president in 1980, Republicans began campaigning successfully on a formula emphasizing tough military and national-security views, cutting marginal tax rates, reforming the welfare bureaucracy, fighting crime and resisting affirmative action.
But many of the goals embodied in that formula have been achieved in the last generation, even as Republicans keep stressing them, Mr. Douthat argues. Meanwhile, he worries that Republicans may be losing their advantage with the very set of new voters they drew in along the way. "This year," he argues, "Obama owns the middle-class tax-cut issue.
To combat that, Mr. Douthat and other reformers argue for Republicans to adopt a broad and aggressive "family-friendly tax reform." Such a change would be designed to appeal to working-class families by offering a significantly enlarged child tax credit, giving a direct tax break specifically to parents in the middle and lower income brackets.
Taxes on investments also would be kept low, and the top marginal tax rate would be reduced a bit as well. To make up lost revenue -- and keep deficits under control -- the change would eliminate or reduce the deduction now given for state and local taxes, and apply that lower top rate to a larger universe of taxpayers.
For his part, Gov. Pawlenty argues for an updated Republican message to appeal to Sam's Club Republicans on four fronts:
Health care: Gov. Pawlenty contends that, in a new economy, Republicans should do a better job of convincing working-class voters that their approach of having government help workers carry their own private health insurance from job to job is preferable to relying on either employers or a government program.
Energy: Sen. McCain hit on a winning theme with working-class voters on energy this summer by arguing for a suspension of the federal gas tax and pushing for more oil drilling off America's coasts, Gov. Pawlenty argues. That message hit the right note on a "pound-the-table issue" for middle-class voters.
Education: Republicans need to convince blue-collar families that they can build a better education system, because they are coming to realize that in the new global economy "you'd better have an education that leads you to a skill." That means, he argues, that Republicans should stress such policies as performance pay for teachers, school choice, education boot camps to pull up disadvantaged children and development of online courses.
Fiscal discipline: Above all, he argues, people go to Sam's Club because they don't have a lot of money to spend and want "accountability for value." The want the same from government. So, he argues, Republicans have to do more to show financially strapped voters in the middle class they are the party of fiscal discipline, rather than budget deficits.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the policy director for Sen. McCain's presidential campaign, agrees. The Republican image right now "suffers from spending money hand over fist, and the perception a lot of that was just lining the pockets of folks who had close political connections," he says.
The looming question is how much Gov. Palin can help articulate a message on these fronts. Her record on economic policy is sparse. She cut property taxes as a mayor and appealed to populist sensitivities by selling a private jet used by the previous governor. And as governor she has claimed to have resisted "earmarks," those congressional appropriations that fund specific projects with federal tax dollars, though news reports from the time indicate she pushed for earmarked funds for her city while a mayor.
That's a mixed picture -- and one she's likely to try to clear up Wednesday night in her own closely watched speech at the convention here.
